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基于时间序列遥感数据的高山松碳密度动态估算研究

Estimation of Carbon Density Dynamics for Pinus densata Based on Time-Series Remote Sensing Data

  • 摘要: 以香格里拉市高山松为对象,基于长时间序列遥感数据,引入地上与根系碳密度之和的动态指标,结合多时间尺度分析与多模型对比,系统刻画高海拔针叶林碳密度的时空动态特征。通过对比随机森林(RF)、梯度提升回归树(GBRT)模型,分析了二者对5、10 a碳密度变化量及变化速率的估测精度差异,进而筛选出最优估测指标。同时,分析573个遥感变量及环境因子对碳密度动态的贡献,明确主导驱动因子;并生成动态空间分布图,用于揭示区域碳密度时序演变及空间格局。结果表明:RF模型碳密度的5a变化速率建模效果最优,拟合R2为0.88,RMSE为3.24 tC/hm2。4种变化指标的特征重要性分析显示,纹理因子贡献度较高,建模因子R3T4SK重要性最高(49.12%)。引入气温因子后RF模型5a变化速率的建模效果进一步提升(R2=0.91,RMSE=1.96 tC/hm2)。1987—2017年,高山松碳储量净增量为12.01 \times 104 tC,根系碳储量净增量为1.71 \times 104 tC(总量的14.24%)。

     

    Abstract: This study focused on Pinus densata in Shangri-La City and systematically depicted the spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics of carbon density in high-altitude coniferous forests based on long time-series remote sensing data by adopting a dynamic indicator of total above- and root system carbon density, multi-time scale analysis and multi-model comparison. We compared the Random Forest (RF) and Gradient Boosting Regression Tree (GBRT) models to analyze the differences in their estimation accuracy for 5- and 10-year carbon density changes and their rates, thus identifying the optimal estimation indicators. A total of 573 remote sensing variables and environmental factors were analyzed to identify the dominant drivers of carbon density dynamics. Dynamic spatial distribution maps were further produced to reveal temporal and spatial patterns of regional carbon density.Results showed that the RF model performed best for the 5-year carbon density change rate, with R2=0.88 and RMSE=3.24 tC·hm-2. Feature importance analysis of the four change indicators showed that texture factors contributed relatively highly, and the modeling variable R3T4SK had the highest feature importance (49.12%). Incorporating temperature improved the RF model’s estimation of the 5-year carbon density change rate (R2=0.91, RMSE=1.96 tC·hm-2). From 1987 to 2017, Pinus densata forests achieved a cumulative net carbon storage increment of 12.01 × 104 tC, with root carbon storage contributing 1.71 × 104 tC (14.24% of the total net increment).

     

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