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基于气候变化情景下的马尾松林全林整体生长模型研究

The Integrated Stand Growth Model of Pure Pinus massoniana Forest based on Climate Change Scenarios

  • 摘要: 以广西热带林业中心的马尾松样地数据为研究对象,考虑气候变化影响,构建气候敏感的全林整体生长模型。数据分为两部分,80%为模拟数据,20%为验证数据。参数采用非线性似乎不相关方法求解。基于BCC–CSM2–MR气候驱动模式和4个未来气候变化情景(SSP126、SSP245、SSP370和SSP585),对马尾松林林分优势木平均高、林分公顷断面积和林分公顷蓄积的生长进行预测。结果表明:考虑气候变化影响的全林整体生长模型的模拟效果优于传统全林整体生长模型。年平均降水量是影响林分优势木平均高的唯一重要因子,呈正相关关系。年平均温度是影响林分公顷断面积的唯一重要因子,呈负相关关系。同时温度升高会加剧林木自稀疏,减少林分株数。中国的BCC–CSM2–MR气候驱动模式预测的未来年平均降水量和年平均温度高于当前气候情景(NC),因此降水量增加可促进林分优势木平均高生长,而温度升高会降低林分公顷断面积生长。降水增加促进优势木树高生长,但气温升高会显著抑制林分断面积与蓄积增长,排放情景强度越高,该抑制效应越明显。在4个不同气候情景中,SSP585预测的年平均温度和年平均降水量高于其他3个气候情景。

     

    Abstract: Based on field data of Pinus massoniana sample plots from the Tropical Forestry Research Center of Guangxi, a climate-sensitive integrated stand growth model was established by incorporating the effects of climate change. The dataset was split into two subsets: 80% for model fitting and 20% for validation. Model parameters were estimated using the nonlinear seemingly unrelated regression method. Furthermore, the BCC–CSM2–MR climate model and four future climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) were adopted to predict the dynamics of mean dominant tree height, stand basal area per hectare, and stand volume per hectare of Pinus massoniana stands. The results revealed that the climate-sensitive integrated stand growth model outperformed the traditional version in simulation performance. Mean annual precipitation was the sole key factor positively correlated with the mean dominant tree height of stands, while mean annual temperature was the only significant factor negatively affecting stand basal area per hectare. In addition, rising temperatures intensified stand self-thinning and reduced the number of trees per hectare. Projections from China’s BCC–CSM2–MR climate model indicate that both future mean annual precipitation and temperature will be higher than those under the baseline normal climate (NC) scenario. Increased precipitation facilitates the growth of mean dominant tree height, whereas rising temperatures restrain the growth of stand basal area. Higher precipitation boosts height growth of dominant trees, while increasing temperature significantly inhibits the increment of stand basal area and volume; such inhibitory effects become stronger under higher-emission scenarios. Among the four climate scenarios, SSP585 predicts the highest mean annual temperature and precipitation.

     

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