The Dynamic Changes and Simulating Prediction of Land Use in Jianhu Lake Basin from 1990 to 2015

Based on six Landsat images data from 1990 to 2015, we studied land use changes in Jianhu Lake basin over the past 25 years and then forecasted the changing trends in the following 15 years using land use dynamic degree, transition matrix and CAMarkov model aided by ArcGIS platform. The results showed that from 1990 to 2015, significant changes in land use patterns (up to 818%) were observed. The change rates in land use patterns first increased, then decreased and increased again. In the past 25 years, watercovered and unused land area decreased by 9351hm2 and 266499hm2, respectively. Meanwhile, farmland, forest and construction land area increased by 103842hm2, 45081hm2, and 126927hm2, respectively. The land use patterns during 2015-2020 and 2020-2030 years basically kept the similar variation trends with those during 1990-2015. The construction and forest land increased continuously, which was predicated to reach 3300hm2 and 33588hm2, respectively.