Risk Assessment on Social Vulnerability of Forest Fire in Anning Based on AHP-PCA

Based on socio-economic angle, social vulnerability evaluation index system of anning forest fire environment disaster was constructed. Overlapping indicators of exposure factor were extracted by principal component analysis(PCA). The weight of factors were determined by analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and the top 5 weight of the larger factor as population indicators, economic indicators, forest coverage indicators, local fiscal revenue and the proportion of young and old population were selected for the calculation of vulnerability indicators. The results showed that from 2001 to 2011, the social vulnerability of forest fire environment in Anning City fluctuated from 0.10 to 0.63. The extreme value appeared in 2009. The vulnerability index of Anning forest fire environment system increased markedly and the degree of vulnerability changed from light fragility to strength. The social vulnerability index was positively correlated with the actual number of fires before 2009 and negative correlated after 2009.Social vulnerability research can provide some reference for fire forecast.