Study on Integrated Forest Fire Risk Forecasting Model in Chuxiong Prefecture

Based on the historical forest fire data of Chuxiong Prefecture from 2000 to 2014, using time series analysis and spatial data mining methods, with the help of ArcGIS 10.2 software, integrating surface combustibles, topographic factors and human activities and other forest fire risk factors to construct a comprehensive forest fire risk forecast model for Chuxiong Prefecture, and use the Forest Fire Composite Danger Index(FFCDI) for forest fire risk assessment and risk classification. The results show that the forest fires in Chuxiong Prefecture are seasonally evolving, and they mainly occur in winter and spring from January to May. Chuxiong City and Lufeng County are the areas where forest fires frequently occur in Chuxiong Prefecture, and they are respectively 3000–4000 m away from residential areas and forest fires are the most distributed at 600–1000 m away from the road, 1000–2500 m above sea level, 5°–25° slope, sunny slope and shady slope. The occurrence of forest fires in Chuxiong Prefecture is affected by the complex interaction of combustible materials, human activities, topographical conditions and other factors. Based on this, the Chuxiong Prefecture forest fire risk comprehensive forecast model has a more precise spatial distribution of forecast results and can effectively control about 88.21% of fire points. In summary, the comprehensive forest fire risk forecast model in Chuxiong Prefecture can provide an effective reference for the reasonable deployment of forest fire prevention forces and equipment in the region, and improve the forest fire prevention level in Chuxiong Prefecture.