A Study on the Forecasting Model and Spatiotemporal Changes of Colorful Forest During the Ornamental Period in Heishui County

By analyzing the phenological observation data and synchronous meteorological data from 2008 to 2020 in Heishui County, the key meteorological factors that influence the sequence of color changes in the forest were identified. The short-term climate prediction model for the ornamental period of a colorful forest on a monthly scale, as well as the medium-term weather prediction model for the ornamental period of a colorful forest in the next 10 days, were established and tested using mathematical methods such as multiple regression. Based on the GIS platform and multi-year average meteorological data, we simulated the spatial-temporal distribution of the change dates of the colorful forest scenic area in Heshui County. Results showed: The average dates for the beginning and peak red color of the scenic forest area in Heshui County were September 28 and October 16, respectively. The start date of the colorful forest scenic area was found to have a significant positive correlation with the average temperature and monthly average maximum temperature in July. Conversely, it had a significant negative correlation with the accumulated precipitation in July. Additionally, the peak date of the colorful forest showed a significant negative correlation with the accumulated precipitation in July and a significant positive correlation with the monthly average minimum temperature in August. There was no significant correlation between the meteorological elements in the first 10 days and the timing of the beginning and peak of the colorful forest scenic area. The ornamental index of the colorful forest showed a significant negative correlation with the average temperature, average maximum temperature, average minimum temperature, average relative humidity, and cumulative precipitation during the first 10 days. Conversely, it exhibited a significant positive correlation with the average temperature difference and cumulative sunshine duration. The order of the viewing period for the colorful forest in Heishui County advances as the altitude increases from southeast to northwest. The entire county's colorful forest turns red before October 10^th. The short-term climate prediction model and medium-term weather prediction model for the colorful forest in Heishui County were established based on relevant meteorological factors. The tests demonstrated that the short-term climate prediction model accurately predicts the start and peak of the red dates during the ornamental period of the colorful forest, and it is also highly practical. However, the medium-term prediction model is only suitable for predicting the primrose state of the colorful forest.