Simulation of Species Distribution for Styracaceae in East Asia Under Climate Change

In this study, we collected data on the distribution of Styracaceae species to determine their realistic distribution patterns, used the MaxEnt model to predict their past, Present, and future (2050, 2070) potential distribution to assess the threat posed by climate change, and we accordingly obtained a long-term stable refuge suitable for the species at any time. Finally, we identified the priority conservation areas of Styracaceae species according to the distribution pattern of the long-term stable refuge of these species and put forward conservation recommendations. The main research results are as follows: the species of Styracaceae species are mainly distributed in the subtropical evergreen broad-leaved area of China, and the most abundant species in Guangxi, Guizhou, and Hunan, the diversity of species is gradually reduced. The main environmental factors limiting the distribution of Styracaceae species were the minimum temperature in the coldest month, the average daily temperature range, and soil type. From now to 2050, 70.45% of the potential habitat area of species will decrease, 29.55% of the potential habitat area of species will increase, and 2 species will be assessed as vulnerable and 2 species will be endangered. By 2070, there will be a decrease of 79.55% and an increase of 20.45% of the potential habitat area of species, with 11 species assessed as vulnerable, 4 endangered and 1 critically endangered. The long-term stable sanctuaries of the Styracaceae family are mainly distributed in southeastern Yunnan, northern Guangxi, the junction of Guangxi and Guizhou, the junction of Guangxi and Hunan, the junction of southern Hunan, Guangdong, Hunan and Jiangxi provinces, etc. Southeast Yunnan, western Guizhou, northern Guizhou, and the border areas of Guangxi, Guizhou, and Hunan can protect about 50% of threatened species. Since Styracaceae species will be strongly affected by climate change, we recommend timely conservation using a combination of in situ and ex situ conservation.