Assessment of Habitat for Procapra picticaudata and Its Potential Impacts by Climate Change in Shiqu County

Based on the line transect surveys conducted from May 2023 to July 2024, this study evaluated the potential impacts of climate change on the suitable habitat of Procapra picticaudata in Shiqu County. The results showed that the slope aspect, seasonal temperature variability, diurnal temperature range, and annual temperature range are the primary environmental factors influencing the habitat utilization of the P. picticaudata. The area of existing suitable habitat was 2113 km², with an additional 9996 km² classified as sub-suitable. Of this, 771 km² of suitable habitat and 2342 km² of sub-suitable habitat lay within the Changshagongma Nature Reserve, with the remainder located outside the reserve. Excluding periods with small impacts, the suitable habitat for the P. picticaudatae would be only 50.84% to 73.17% of the existing suitable habitat under the 4 future climate scenarios(SSP126, SSP245, SSP375, and SSP585). Most of this suitable habitat would be shifted to higher altitudes in the northwestern and southwestern regions of the county, while the sub-suitable habitat would be 95.99% to 115.45% of its current extent. The findings indicate that future climate change would likely reduce high-quality habitats for the P. picticaudatae, driving them to higher altitudes. Therefore, conservation efforts in Shiqu County should also focus on the western high-altitude mountainous areas.