Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Distribution of Aboveground Biomass in Coniferous Forests of Yunnan Province

Based on the four-phase (2002, 2007, 2012, and 2017) continuous forest inventory (CFI) data of Yunnan Province and contemporaneous Landsat imagery, in conjunction with climate and topographic data, this study employed the Random Forest Classifier (RFC) to derive coniferous forest spatial distribution data for the four time periods. The fitting performance of five models representing two categories of ensemble learning techniques—Bagging and Boosting—was compared. Random Forest Regression (RFR) was identified as the optimal model and subsequently utilized for the inversion of aboveground biomass (AGB) of coniferous forests across the four periods at the provincial scale. The temporal dynamics and spatial distribution of coniferous forest AGB in Yunnan Province were further analyzed.The results indicate that land use classification using the RFC model for the period 2002–2017 achieved an overall accuracy (OA) ranging from 0.76 to 0.78, with Kappa coefficients between 0.65 and 0.69, demonstrating high classification accuracy. In the remote sensing-based modeling and estimation of coniferous forest AGB, decision tree models based on the Bagging technique exhibited superior fitting stability and performance compared to those based on Boosting. The total AGB of coniferous forests in Yunnan Province was 1.49 Gt, 1.33 Gt, 1.35 Gt, and 1.58 Gt in 2002, 2007, 2012, and 2017, respectively, showing an initial decline followed by an increase. The total AGB in 2017 increased by 6% compared to 2002. From 2002 to 2017, despite declines in certain prefectures, the overall trend of AGB exhibited an increase.