Temporal and Spatial Distribution Pattern and Influencing Factors of Lightning Fires in the Altai Mountain Forest Area

Taking the Altai Mountain Forest Region as the study area, this study analyzes the distribution patterns of lightning fires in the region at different spatial and temporal scales based on the historical lightning fires data. Methods such as average nearest neighbor analysis and kernel density analysis are employed to examine the spatial distribution patterns of lightning-caused fires. Additionally, Pearson correlation analysis and other techniques are used to investigate the influence of topographical and meteorological factors on lightning fires in the study area. The results show that: From 2002 to 2022, a total of 96 lightning fires occurred in the Altai Mountains forest area, most of which occurred from June to August, with the highest number in July. Lightning fires are most concentrated between 1:00 p.m. and 7:00 p.m., with the period between 4:00 p.m. and 5:00 p.m. being the most prone to lightning fires. Lightning fires in the Altai Mountain forest region exhibit significant spatial clustering, with the majority concentrated in the Habahe Branch and Burqin Branch. The Qinghe Branch has the fewest lightning fires, with only three incidents reported. The areas with the highest density of fire points are the southern part of the Habahe Branch and the areas bordering the Habahe Branch and the Kanas Nature Reserve, but the overall fire point density is low. The number of lightning fires in the Altai Mountain forest region is extremely significantly correlated with the monthly average temperature and significantly correlated with the annual precipitation. Lightning fires mainly occur at altitudes of 1,500 to 2,000 meters, on gentle slopes and steep slopes with gradients of 6° to 25°. The overall distribution of lightning fires is on shaded slopes and semi-shaded slopes. The forest type most prone to lightning fires is Larix sibirica. The research results clarify the spatial and temporal distribution pattern and influencing factors of lightning-induced fires in the Altai Mountain forest region, providing a reference for the prevention and control of lightning fires.