Analysis of Fuel Load Characteristics and Model Construction of Typical Broad-Leaved Forest Types in Sichuan Province

This article focuses on typical broad-leaved forests in Sichuan Province and employs variance and redundancy analyses to examine the driving mechanisms of forest and terrain factors in fuel load distribution. Then, a stepwise regression method is applied to construct a fuel load prediction model for eight typical broad-leaved forest types (evergreen oak, deciduous oak, hard broad-leaved, soft broad-leaved, Cinnamomum, Populus, Betula and Eucalyptus). The results indicate significant differences in the composition of combustible load components among forest types, and that their distribution patterns are synergistically regulated by stand parameters such as canopy density and age structure, as well as terrain factors such as altitude and slope orientation. The total combustible load model, constructed based on key influencing factors, demonstrates high predictive accuracy, with a coefficient of determination greater than 0.707 for both model fitting and testing, and a root mean square error of less than 10.4 t/hm². This study provides a quantitative tool for precise estimation of forest combustibles and for fire risk assessment, thereby aiding early fire warning and prevention.