Study on the Evolving Changes and Development Trends of Forest Resources in China

China's unique national conditions and site characteristics have shaped its distinctive forest status and forestry development model. Limited land available for afforestation, low forest growth potential, a dominance of young and middle-aged forests, and a scarcity of over-mature forests have become key bottlenecks hindering the modernization and industrialization of China's forestry sector. This study innovatively proposes a macro-control theory for forest resources to break through the limitations of precision forest management. It reveals the interaction mechanisms and correlation effects among 6 structural variables critical to forestry development: afforestation volume, stock volume, growth volume, harvesting volume, and consumption volume. The study introduces an age-based method and an improved SEIR−F model to simulate the evolution trajectories of forest resources under different policy scenarios. It quantitatively explores the relationships between new afforestation rate, harvesting rate, and existing forest retention rate, and proposes an ideal annual harvesting rate. The results show that in the future, the annual net increase of forest area in China will be approximately 1.7 million hm², and the forest coverage rate will increase by about 0.18% annually. China will fully enter the period of forest management to improve forestry quality. It is estimated that around 2050, the maximum ecological carrying capacity coverage rate of 29.59% will be achieved, and China will enter the period of sustainable and high-quality development of forestry. Each year, 1.8467 million hm² of forests will be harvested and reforested on the logged-over areas, accounting for 0.65% of the forest area. Meanwhile, precise forest management plans will be implemented in 99.35%(282 million hm²) of the forests. After 2050, the forest area will be about 287 million hm², with a stock volume of 23.16 billion m³. The annual growth volume will reach 2.04 billion m³, and the annual timber harvest will be 362 million m³. Using the ideal annual harvest rate, a 63-year rotation cycle can achieve the dynamic balance and sustainable renewal of forests, effectively curbing resource over-exploitation and structural imbalance. This study innovatively establishes a Chinese-style forest management theoretical system, which has important reference value for realizing the forestry ecological security pattern, comprehensively achieving self - sufficiency in timber, building a stable, efficient and sustainable ecosystem and a high - quality industrial system, and contributing to the construction of a powerful forestry country. It also provides a scientific basis for the sustainable management of forestry at the national, provincial and county levels.