Prediction of Suitable Habitats for Camellia petelotii in Guangxi Based on an Optimized MaxEnt Model

Based on an optimized MaxEnt model, this study integrates 12 environmental factors including climate, topography, and soil to predict the potential suitable habitats of Camellia petelotii in Guangxi under current and future climate scenarios. The results indicate that the optimized model provides highly accurate predictions (AUC = 0.940). The dominant environmental factors influencing the distribution of Camellia petelotii are precipitation of the warmest quarter, soil bulk density, elevation, and precipitation of the wettest month. Under the current climate scenario, the suitable habitats show a gradual expansion trend from the southern coastal areas inland, with highly suitable areas concentrated along the southern coast from Dongxing to Fangcheng, which highly coincides with the natural distribution center of the Lanshan branch of the Shiwandashan Mountains. Compared to the current period, under future climate scenarios, the suitable habitats of Camellia petelotii exhibit a migration characteristic of "stable core and fluctuating edges." It is recommended to strengthen the institutional protection of core areas, promote assisted migration in expansion regions such as Yulin and Wuzhou, and establish topographic refugia in shrinking areas (e.g., mountainous valleys of Baise) to enhance population sustainability.