Study on the Patterns of Human-Bear Conflicts and Spatial Risk Distribution in Deqin County, Yunnan

In order to understand the distribution of human-bear conflict risk areas in Deqin County, Yunnan Province, and proactively reduce the occurrence of human-bear conflicts in this region, Deqin County was selected as the study area. Based on 4,168 historical conflict records and questionnaire survey data from 2014 to 2023, along with 111 site-specific records, we constructed a MaxEnt model to identify conflict patterns and risk areas in Deqin County. The results indicate that the pattern of human-bear conflicts in Deqin County is primarily characterized by crop damage, accounting for 67.2%. Among them, corn is the most severely affected, making up 85.4% of the crop damage. The trend of inter-annual conflicts shows a fluctuating upward pattern, with autumn being the seasonal peak and nighttime representing the daily peak. Individual economic losses are mainly concentrated in the range of 2,500 to 5,000 yuan. The total area of risk zones in the county is 2,341.21 km², accounting for 46.8% of the county's total area, showing a pattern of dense in the south and sparse in the north. High-risk areas are mainly located in the valleys of the Jinsha River and Lancang River. Human activity index (26.1%), elevation (23.4%), and river density (17.7%) are the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of human-bear conflict risk areas, with a cumulative contribution rate of 67.2%. In summary, applying the MaxEnt distribution model algorithm to the study of human-bear conflict distribution in the Transverse Mountain region helps identify areas where human and bear activity spaces overlap.