Potential Impact of Climate Change on Distribution of Cunninghamia lanceolata

The Bioclim model was applied to predict the potential distribution area for Cunninghamia lanceolata tree species under the present and coming future climate conditions based on the current distribution characteristics of this tree species and the data of the counties in the subtropical area in China as distribution sample sites. The results showed that the estimation of potential suitable distribution area of C. lanceolata was in good agreement with the documented results. The most suitable area would be shrunk, and the optimal distribution area would be moved eastward if the CO2 concentration was doubled. The southern boundary of the original distribution area of C. lanceolata would shift northward when the average temperature increased 2℃, and there would be distinct fragmentation for the optimum suitable distribution area when the average temperature increased 4℃. The suitable distribution area would be limited to Guizhou Province and the northern boundary of the original distribution area if the precipitation increased by 20%.