应用马尔可夫链预测华山松木蠹象发生趋势

Occurrence Forecast of Pissodes puctatus by Markov Chain Theory

  • 摘要: 依据会泽县国营者海林场1993~2003年华山松木蠹象发生面积,应用马尔可夫链,预测2004年华山松木蠹象发生量和发生趋势,与2004年实际情况相比较,以验证马尔可夫链在实际应用中的可靠性。

     

    Abstract: The occurrence tendency of Pissodes puctatus on Zhehai State Forest Farm in Huize County, Yunnan Province in 2004 was forecast based on the occurrence areas of Pissodes puctatus recorded on the farm during the years from 1993 to 2003 by means of Markov chain theory.The reliability of the forecast method and the precision of the forecast were verified with the actual situation of the pest occurrence in the year of 2004.

     

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