李任波, 刘菊华, 罗正方, 王莹, 李永和, 谢开立. 应用马尔可夫链预测华山松木蠹象发生趋势[J]. 西南林业大学学报, 2005, 25(2): 50-52. DOI: 10.11929/j.issn.2095-1914.2005.02.013
引用本文: 李任波, 刘菊华, 罗正方, 王莹, 李永和, 谢开立. 应用马尔可夫链预测华山松木蠹象发生趋势[J]. 西南林业大学学报, 2005, 25(2): 50-52. DOI: 10.11929/j.issn.2095-1914.2005.02.013
shu
LI Ren-bo, LIU Ju-hua, LUO Zheng-fang, WANG Ying, LI Yong-he, XIE Kai-li. Occurrence Forecast of Pissodes puctatus by Markov Chain Theory[J]. Journal of Southwest Forestry University, 2005, 25(2): 50-52. DOI: 10.11929/j.issn.2095-1914.2005.02.013
Citation: LI Ren-bo, LIU Ju-hua, LUO Zheng-fang, WANG Ying, LI Yong-he, XIE Kai-li. Occurrence Forecast of Pissodes puctatus by Markov Chain Theory[J]. Journal of Southwest Forestry University, 2005, 25(2): 50-52. DOI: 10.11929/j.issn.2095-1914.2005.02.013
shu

应用马尔可夫链预测华山松木蠹象发生趋势

Occurrence Forecast of Pissodes puctatus by Markov Chain Theory

    摘要
  • 摘要: 依据会泽县国营者海林场1993~2003年华山松木蠹象发生面积,应用马尔可夫链,预测2004年华山松木蠹象发生量和发生趋势,与2004年实际情况相比较,以验证马尔可夫链在实际应用中的可靠性。

     

    Abstract: The occurrence tendency of Pissodes puctatus on Zhehai State Forest Farm in Huize County, Yunnan Province in 2004 was forecast based on the occurrence areas of Pissodes puctatus recorded on the farm during the years from 1993 to 2003 by means of Markov chain theory.The reliability of the forecast method and the precision of the forecast were verified with the actual situation of the pest occurrence in the year of 2004.

     

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