油松林分断面积生长预估模型研究

Forecast Models Research of Stands Basal Area Growth for Pinus tabulaeformis

  • 摘要: 在森林经营中,间伐林分、未间伐林分分开单独建模存在不相容的问题,有必要对其进行研究,并建立统一的模型。利用森林资源一类清查数据,以Schumacher模型为基础,通过引入哑变量、间伐指标分别建立北京市油松林分断面积生长预估模型,使得间伐林分和未间伐林分能够整合在一起建立统一的模型。经检验,引入哑变量模型对油松林分断面积的预测精度最低,为8799%;其次是引入间伐指标模型,预估精度为8836%;综合引入哑变量和间伐指标模型预估精度最高,为8861%。所建模型对间伐林分和未间伐林分均适用,更方便于在实践中应用。

     

    Abstract: It was incompatible to model thinned stands and unthinned stands separately, so it was necessary to study and establish the unified models. Using forest inventory data, based on Schumacher model, through introducing the dummy variables and thinning indexes to establish the stands basal area growth forecast models of Pinus tabulaeformis in Beijing respectively, and made the thinned stands and unthinned stands together to establish unified models.After inspection,on the forecast effect for stands basal area of Pinus tabulaeformis, forecast accuracy of model with dummy variables was 87.99% as a minimum; followed by the model with thinning indexes, forecast accuracy was 88.36%;forecast effect of model with dummy variables and thinning indexes was the best, forecast accuracy was as high as 88.61%.The models was applicable for thinned stands and unthinned stands, it was more convenient for application in practice.

     

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