甄硕, 索朗夺尔基, 董李勤, 姚鹏举, 郑茹敏. 若尔盖高原1967—2014年气候变化特征分析[J]. 西南林业大学学报, 2016, 36(5): 138-143. DOI: 10.11929/j.issn.2095-1914.2016.05.023
引用本文: 甄硕, 索朗夺尔基, 董李勤, 姚鹏举, 郑茹敏. 若尔盖高原1967—2014年气候变化特征分析[J]. 西南林业大学学报, 2016, 36(5): 138-143. DOI: 10.11929/j.issn.2095-1914.2016.05.023
Zhen Shuo1, Suolang Duoerji2, Dong Liqin1, Yao Pengju1, Zheng Rumin1. Analysis on Climate Change Characteristics of Zoige Plateau During 1967-2014[J]. Journal of Southwest Forestry University, 2016, 36(5): 138-143. DOI: 10.11929/j.issn.2095-1914.2016.05.023
Citation: Zhen Shuo1, Suolang Duoerji2, Dong Liqin1, Yao Pengju1, Zheng Rumin1. Analysis on Climate Change Characteristics of Zoige Plateau During 1967-2014[J]. Journal of Southwest Forestry University, 2016, 36(5): 138-143. DOI: 10.11929/j.issn.2095-1914.2016.05.023

若尔盖高原1967—2014年气候变化特征分析

Analysis on Climate Change Characteristics of Zoige Plateau During 1967-2014

  • 摘要: 以1967—2014年若尔盖高原3个气象台站 (若尔盖站、红原站、玛曲站) 的观测数据为基础,应用线性回归法计算全年及四季若尔盖高原气候因子变化趋势,结合MannKendall方法对气候变化进行突变分析。结果表明: 若尔盖高原气温呈上升趋势,降水呈下降趋势,蒸发量也呈增大趋势,整体气候继续朝暖干化方向发展。若尔盖高原气温各季节变化均呈上升趋势,以冬季上升幅度最大;降水量除秋季呈明显减少趋势外,其他季节呈略增加趋势,但降水整体趋势为减少;各季节蒸发量均呈上升趋势,其中以秋季蒸发量上升趋势最大。若尔盖高原气温在1997年发生突变,从此后上升趋势明显;高原降水分别在1975年和1985年发生了2次突变,第2次突变后降水增加趋势变慢并在1991年后开始减少;蒸发量在1994年和1999年发生突变。

     

    Abstract: Based on climate data of three stations (Zoige, hongyuan, maqu) of Zoige plateau from 1967 to 2014. Application of linear regression calculation of annual and seasonal climatic change trend, and MannKendall method of three stations data of climate change for mutation analysis. The results show that the climate change in Zoige plateau is: the rise of the temperature, the decrease of precipitation and evaporation quantity, climate was warm and dry in the direction of the trend. Seasonal temperature showed an upward trend, and the trend is evident in winter. In addition to the autumn precipitation reduced obviously, the rest of the season showed a slight upward trend, the general tendency of precipitation is decrease. Seasonal evapotranspiration showed a rising trend, and the trend reached the maximum in autumn. Air temperature had a mutation in 1997. Since then, the upward trend is obvious. Two mutations of precipitation occurred in 1975 and 1985, respectively. Precipitation increased slowly after the second mutation and began to decrease in 1991. Evaporation quantity had two mutations in 1994 and 1999, respectively.

     

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