1990—2015年剑湖流域土地利用变化动态及趋势预测

The Dynamic Changes and Simulating Prediction of Land Use in Jianhu Lake Basin from 1990 to 2015

  • 摘要: 基于1990—2015年6期Landsat影像数据,借助ArcGIS平台,采用土地利用动态度、转移矩阵及CAMarkov模型,研究了近25年剑湖流域土地利用动态变化特征,并预测其未来15年土地利用变化趋势。结果表明:1990—2015剑湖流域土地利用空间格局发生了明显变化,变化面积达818%,变化速度表现为先减小后增加再减小又增加的趋势;25年间水域面积减少9351hm2,未利用地面积减少266499hm2,农地面积增加103842hm2,林地面积增加45081hm2,建筑用地面积增加126927hm2,土地利用强度逐渐增大;2015—2020年、2020—2030年土地利用格局基本保持了1990—2015年的变化趋势,建筑用地和林地继续增加,预计2030年建筑用地和林地面积将分别为3300、33588hm2。

     

    Abstract: Based on six Landsat images data from 1990 to 2015, we studied land use changes in Jianhu Lake basin over the past 25 years and then forecasted the changing trends in the following 15 years using land use dynamic degree, transition matrix and CAMarkov model aided by ArcGIS platform. The results showed that from 1990 to 2015, significant changes in land use patterns (up to 818%) were observed. The change rates in land use patterns first increased, then decreased and increased again. In the past 25 years, watercovered and unused land area decreased by 9351hm2 and 266499hm2, respectively. Meanwhile, farmland, forest and construction land area increased by 103842hm2, 45081hm2, and 126927hm2, respectively. The land use patterns during 2015-2020 and 2020-2030 years basically kept the similar variation trends with those during 1990-2015. The construction and forest land increased continuously, which was predicated to reach 3300hm2 and 33588hm2, respectively.

     

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