伊伯乐, 曹哲铭, 班擎宇, 张秋良, 张恒. 基于PCA和系统聚类的西南地区森林火灾形势评价[J]. 西南林业大学学报, 2018, 38(4): 153-160. DOI: 10.11929/j.issn.2095-1914.2018.04.024
引用本文: 伊伯乐, 曹哲铭, 班擎宇, 张秋良, 张恒. 基于PCA和系统聚类的西南地区森林火灾形势评价[J]. 西南林业大学学报, 2018, 38(4): 153-160. DOI: 10.11929/j.issn.2095-1914.2018.04.024
Bole Yi, Zheming Cao, Qingyu Ban, Qiuliang Zhang, Heng Zhang. Forest Fire Situation Assessment in Southwest China Based on PCA and System Clustering[J]. Journal of Southwest Forestry University, 2018, 38(4): 153-160. DOI: 10.11929/j.issn.2095-1914.2018.04.024
Citation: Bole Yi, Zheming Cao, Qingyu Ban, Qiuliang Zhang, Heng Zhang. Forest Fire Situation Assessment in Southwest China Based on PCA and System Clustering[J]. Journal of Southwest Forestry University, 2018, 38(4): 153-160. DOI: 10.11929/j.issn.2095-1914.2018.04.024

基于PCA和系统聚类的西南地区森林火灾形势评价

Forest Fire Situation Assessment in Southwest China Based on PCA and System Clustering

  • 摘要: 基于2007—2016年我国西南地区森林火灾数据,利用统计描述对该地区的火灾时空分布特征进行分析,并且利用主成分分析和聚类分析将森林火灾分级,进而对我国西南地区森林火灾形势进行评价。结果表明:2007—2010年,年均火灾起数和火场面积较高,没有明显年际变化;2010年后各地区火灾数量,伤亡人数等均有较大幅度下降;2015年又有所回升,总体表现为上升趋势。空间分布上贵州的各项火灾指标如HCF等均出现最大值,火灾形势最严重,受灾程度较大;云南的火灾波动范围最大,而且HCF的发生率比较高;四川地形则较为复杂,既有高原又有盆地,气候春旱夏热极易发生火灾。按照严重程度由高到低将森林火灾分为14类,其中贵州省火灾形势最为严峻,一般火灾发生较多,火灾数量逐年提高,其次是云南、四川等。研究结果可为西南地区有效预防森林火灾特别是重大、特大森林火灾提供一定参考。

     

    Abstract: Based on the forest fire data of southwest China from 2007 to 2016, the spatial and temporal distribution of fire in this area was analyzed by statistical description, and the forest fire was classified by principal component analysis and cluster analysis. And quality of forest fire in southwest China was evaluated. The results show that from 2007 to 2010, the number of fires and the area of fire site were higher in 2007-2010, and there was no obvious interannual change. After 2010, the number of fires and the number of casualties in various regions decreased by a large margin, but the number of casualties increased in 2015. In general, the number of fires in Guizhou Province was the highest, followed by that in Guizhou Province. According to the comprehensive situation of fire, the forest fire is divided into 14 categories according to the severity of fire, among which, the fire situation in Guizhou province was the most severe, the general fire was more serious, the number of fire increasedyear by year, its origin was Yunnan province, Sichuan province, etc. The research result can provide certain reference for the forest fire prevention practice and forecast forecast work in the region.

     

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