基于MaxEnt模型预测漆树在中国的潜在适生区研究

Predication of Potential Distribution of Toxicodendron vernicifluum in China Based on MaxEnt Model

  • 摘要: 基于漆树的206条现代地理分布记录和9种环境因子变量数据,采用MaxEnt模型模拟了漆树在中国的适生分布区,并综合利用贡献率、刀切法检验和响应曲线对影响漆树分布的主导因子进行分析。结果表明:MaxEnt模型模拟预测精度较高,AUC值达0.941;年均降水量、海拔、年平均温度和温度变化方差为影响漆树地理分布的主导环境因子,目前漆树适生区主要集中在中国西南地区的秦巴山、横断山脉、云贵高原和四川盆地等。研究结果对中国漆树人工林的合理栽植和科学区划具有一定的参考价值。

     

    Abstract: Based on the 206 modern geographical distribution records and 9 environmental factor variables of Toxicodendron vernicifluum, the MaxEnt model was used to simulate the suitable distribution area of T. vernicifluum in China. Combined with the variable contributions, jackknife tests and response curves analyzes the dominant factors affecting the distribution of the T. vernicifluum. The results show that the MaxEnt model has high prediction accuracy and the average AUC value is 0.941; the annual average precipitation, altitude, annual average temperature and temperature variation variance are the dominant environmental factors affecting the geographical distribution of the T. vernicifluum. The current suitable area of T. vernicifluum is mainly concentrated in Qinba Mountain, Hengduan Mountains, Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau and Sichuan Basin in Southwestern China. The research results have certain reference value for the rational planting and scientific division of China's T. vernicifluum plantations.

     

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