新疆森林火灾时空分布特征及其与气候的关系

Temporal-spatial Characteristics of Forest Fire and Their Linkages with Climates in Xinjiang

  • 摘要: 基于森林火灾报表数据(1999—2020年)和中国火灾网络数据(2005—2018年),利用相关分析、相对重要性分析等方法,分析了新疆森林火灾时空规律,探讨了过火面积与气候的关系。结果表明:80%的火灾发生在13:00—17:00,3—9月是火灾起数高发月份(占全年89.62%),8—9月是过火面积较高月份(占全年79.59%),森林火灾起数和过火面积自1999年以来均呈现下降趋势,且过火面积下降趋势显著。空间范围80°~88°E,43°~48°N是森林火灾发生的主要区域。8—9月过火面积主要受气温日较差(原始数据:r=0.49,P < 0.05;去趋势数据:r=0.68,P < 0.05)和最高温(原始数据:r=0.47,P < 0.05;去趋势数据:r=0.54,P < 0.05)的影响。森林火灾主要是人为引起的,2017—2020年(58.46%)比1999—2016年(71.73%)人为火源比例下降13.27%。研究结果可为新疆森林火灾监测预警提供科学依据,即当预测8—9月最高温度较高的时候,需加强重点时段和关键地区的火源管控。

     

    Abstract: Based o correlation and relative importance analysis, we made full use of the officially released forest fire data(1999–2020) and Wildfire Atlas of China(2005–2018) for Xinjiang, summarized their temporal-spatial patterns, analyzed fire-climate relationships, and comprehensively explored their causes. The results were as follows: On the daily scale, 80% of the forest fires were found between 13: 00 and 17: 00. On the monthly scale, most forest fires occurred from March to September(89.62%), with relatively higher burned areas being observed from August to September(79.59%). On annual scales, both fire count and burned areas showed a decreasing trend since 1999, with the latter decreasing significantly. Spatially, forest fires in Xinjiang were observed at the spatial regions of 80°–88°E, 43°–48°N. August–September diurnal temperature range(DTR, raw data: r=0.49, P < 0.05; detrended data: r=0.69, P < 0.05) and maximum temperature(Tmax, raw data: r=0.47, P < 0.05; detrended data: r=0.54, P < 0.05) were found to be the key factors affecting burned areas in Xinjiang. Most forest fires in Xinjiang were caused by humans. The percentage of human–induced forest fires decreased by 13.27% for the periods of 2017–2020(59.76%) compared to that during 1999–2016(71.73%). The results of this study may provide scientific guidelines on forest fire monitoring and alarming in Xinjiang. Specifically, forest fire source management for specific regions should be strengthened when the August–September maximum temperature in Xinjiang is projected to increase.

     

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