班擎宇, 张盟盟, 张新宇, 等. 锡林郭勒草原火灾时空动态变化特征研究[J]. 西南林业大学学报(自然科学), 2024, 44(5): 1–8. DOI: 10.11929/j.swfu.202311031
引用本文: 班擎宇, 张盟盟, 张新宇, 等. 锡林郭勒草原火灾时空动态变化特征研究[J]. 西南林业大学学报(自然科学), 2024, 44(5): 1–8. DOI: 10.11929/j.swfu.202311031
Ban Qingyu, Zhang Mengmeng, Zhang Xinyu, Zhang Heng. Study on Spatio-temporal Dynamic Characteristics of Grassland Fires in Xilingol[J]. Journal of Southwest Forestry University. DOI: 10.11929/j.swfu.202311031
Citation: Ban Qingyu, Zhang Mengmeng, Zhang Xinyu, Zhang Heng. Study on Spatio-temporal Dynamic Characteristics of Grassland Fires in Xilingol[J]. Journal of Southwest Forestry University. DOI: 10.11929/j.swfu.202311031

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锡林郭勒草原火灾时空动态变化特征研究

Study on Spatio-temporal Dynamic Characteristics of Grassland Fires in Xilingol

  • 摘要: 利用Mann−Kendall趋势检验法、滑动t检验法对1981—2018年锡林郭勒草原火灾数据进行趋势和突变分析,使用分位数回归法研究海拔因素对草原火灾过火面积的影响,得出锡林郭勒草原火灾在空间上的变化趋势。结果表明:锡林郭勒草原火灾次数总体上呈“阶梯式”递减的趋势,草原火灾主要发生在春、秋两季,占全年火灾总次数超过90%;全年、防火期和春季草原火灾的突变年份均在1994—1995年,秋季火灾在1990年发生突变,夏季无突变年份;相较于法定防火期,锡林郭勒草原火险期向夏季偏移,且有缩短的趋势。锡林郭勒草原火灾在东乌珠穆沁旗、西乌珠穆沁旗等地发生次数较多,整体呈现由西南向东北递增的趋势,且草原火灾过火面积随着海拔高度的上升有减少的趋势。每年的春季、秋季到来之前应加强锡林郭勒草原的防火宣传工作,并关注夏季火情;着重对东乌珠穆沁旗、西乌珠穆沁旗和锡林浩特市等低海拔区域的草原火灾进行预防和监测工作,合理分配防火资源。

     

    Abstract: Mann−Kendall trend test and sliding t−test were used to analyze the trend and abrupt change of Xilingol grassland fire data from 1981 to 2018, and the quantile regression was used to study the altitude factor affecting the grassland fire area and finally obtained the change trend of Xilingol grassland fire in space.The results indicate that: The number of grassland fires in Xilingol generally shows a "stepwise" decreasing trend, mainly occurring in spring and autumn, accounting for more than 90% of the total number of fires throughout the year. The abrupt change year in the entire year,fire prevention period and the spring grassland fires are from 1994 to 1995, the abrupt change in autumn occurred in 1990 and there were no abrupt change years in summer. Compared with the statutory fire prevention period, the fire risk period of Xilingol grassland shifted toward summer, and has a tendency to shorten. Xilingol grassland fires occur more frequently in East Uzhumqin Banner and West Uzhumqin Banner, with an overall increasing trend from southwest to northeast,and the burned area has a decreasing trend with the increase of altitude.The study suggests that fire prevention publicity in the Xilingol grasslands should be strengthened before spring and autumn each year, and attention should be paid to summer fires. Focus on the prevention and monitoring of grassland fires in the low elevation areas of East Uzhumqin Banner, West Uzhumqin Banner and Xilinhot City, and reasonably allocate fire prevention resources.

     

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