高畅, 王帆. 天然次生白桦单木冠幅预测模型研究[J]. 西南林业大学学报(自然科学), 2024, 44(6): 1–8 . DOI: 10.11929/j.swfu.202312031
引用本文: 高畅, 王帆. 天然次生白桦单木冠幅预测模型研究[J]. 西南林业大学学报(自然科学), 2024, 44(6): 1–8 . DOI: 10.11929/j.swfu.202312031
Gao Chang, Wang Fan. Model for Predicting Individual Tree Crown Width of Natural Secondary Betula Platyphylla[J]. Journal of Southwest Forestry University. DOI: 10.11929/j.swfu.202312031
Citation: Gao Chang, Wang Fan. Model for Predicting Individual Tree Crown Width of Natural Secondary Betula Platyphylla[J]. Journal of Southwest Forestry University. DOI: 10.11929/j.swfu.202312031

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天然次生白桦单木冠幅预测模型研究

Model for Predicting Individual Tree Crown Width of Natural Secondary Betula Platyphylla

  • 摘要: 以黑龙江省哈尔滨市依兰县丹清河实验林场30块天然次生白桦林样地的1844棵白桦为研究对象,从常用的10个冠幅基础预测模型中选择白桦的最优模型,通过分析单木因子与冠幅的相关性对模型进行再参数化,引入样地水平的随机效应构建天然次生白桦冠幅的混合效应模型。结果表明:Logistic模型最适宜描述白桦的冠幅变化,引入枝下高、高径比和树冠率可以改进模型的预测精度。引入样地水平的随机效应改善了数据的异方差问题,再次提高了冠幅的预测精度。因此,建议在实际生产中采用非线性混合效应模型对天然次生白桦的冠幅进行预测,从而提高冠幅预测的准确率,为合理经营天然次生白桦提供更加科学有效的理论支持。

     

    Abstract: Taking into consideration the 1844 Betula platyphylla trees within the 30 natural secondary Betula platyphylla forest plots of Danqinghe Forest Farm in Yilan County, Harbin City, Heilongjiang Province. From a selection of commonly used 10 crown width base prediction models, opt for the optimum model suitable for Betula platyphylla, and reparameterize the model based on an analysis of the correlation between individual tree factors and crown width. Finally, introduce random effects at the plot level to construct a mixed-effects model for predicting the crown width of natural secondary Betula platyphylla. The results showed that the Logistic model was most suitable for describing the variation in crown width of Betula platyphylla, and the introduction of crown base height, height-to-diameter ratio and crown rate could improve the prediction accuracy of the model. The inclusion of random effects at the plot level has improved the issue of heteroscedasticity in the data and further enhanced the predictive performance for crown width. Consequently, it is recommended to employ a nonlinear mixed-effects model for predicting the crown width of natural secondary Betula platyphylla in practical production. This approach will not only enhance the accuracy of crown width estimation but also provide a more scientifically valid theoretical foundation for the sustainable management of natural secondary Betula platyphylla.

     

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