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气候变化背景下东亚地区安息香科的物种分布研究

Simulation of Species Distribution for Styracaceae in East Asia Under Climate Change

  • 摘要: 通过收集安息香科物种的分布数据确定其现实物种分布格局,利用MaxEnt模型预测其过去、现在和未来(2050、2070年)的潜在分布来评估气候变化带来的威胁,鉴定出安息香科各物种的长期稳定避难所,并根据这些物种长期稳定避难所的分布格局识别了安息香科物种优先保护区域并提出保护建议。结果表明:安息香科物种主要分布在中国的亚热带常绿阔叶林区,物种丰富度最高的区域位于黔桂湘三省交界,向四周逐渐降低。限制该类群分布的主要环境因子是最冷月份最低温度、日温度平均范围和土壤类型。从当前到2050年,有70.45%的物种潜在适生区面积减小,29.55%的物种潜在适生区面积增加,评估为易危和濒危的各有2种;到2070年,有79.55%的物种潜在适生区面积减少,20.45%的物种潜在适生区面积增加,评估为易危的有11种,濒危的有4种,极危的有1种。安息香科的长期稳定避难所主要分布在滇东南、桂北、黔桂交界处、湘桂交界处、湘南、粤湘赣3省交界处等地。滇东南、贵州西部和北部和黔桂湘3省交界的区域可以保护约50%的受威胁物种。安息香科物种将受到气候变化的强烈影响,本研究建议使用就地保护和迁地保护相结合的方式进行及时保护。

     

    Abstract: In this study, we collected data on the distribution of Styracaceae species to determine their realistic distribution patterns, used the MaxEnt model to predict their past, Present, and future (2050, 2070) potential distribution to assess the threat posed by climate change, and we accordingly obtained a long-term stable refuge suitable for the species at any time. Finally, we identified the priority conservation areas of Styracaceae species according to the distribution pattern of the long-term stable refuge of these species and put forward conservation recommendations. The main research results are as follows: the species of Styracaceae species are mainly distributed in the subtropical evergreen broad-leaved area of China, and the most abundant species in Guangxi, Guizhou, and Hunan, the diversity of species is gradually reduced. The main environmental factors limiting the distribution of Styracaceae species were the minimum temperature in the coldest month, the average daily temperature range, and soil type. From now to 2050, 70.45% of the potential habitat area of species will decrease, 29.55% of the potential habitat area of species will increase, and 2 species will be assessed as vulnerable and 2 species will be endangered. By 2070, there will be a decrease of 79.55% and an increase of 20.45% of the potential habitat area of species, with 11 species assessed as vulnerable, 4 endangered and 1 critically endangered. The long-term stable sanctuaries of the Styracaceae family are mainly distributed in southeastern Yunnan, northern Guangxi, the junction of Guangxi and Guizhou, the junction of Guangxi and Hunan, the junction of southern Hunan, Guangdong, Hunan and Jiangxi provinces, etc. Southeast Yunnan, western Guizhou, northern Guizhou, and the border areas of Guangxi, Guizhou, and Hunan can protect about 50% of threatened species. Since Styracaceae species will be strongly affected by climate change, we recommend timely conservation using a combination of in situ and ex situ conservation.

     

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