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极小种群植物圆叶天女花地理分布模拟及优先保护区识别
Simulation of Geographical Distribution and Identification of Priority Protected Areas of the Extremely Small Populations of Oyama sinensis
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摘要: 基于气候、土壤及地形等自然生态因子,结合植物分布样点数据,利用优化的最大熵模型预测圆叶天女花的潜在适宜分布区。根据熵值赋权法计算的人类干扰因子,结合保护规划模型,识别圆叶天女花的优先保护区,探讨圆叶天女花的保护空缺区域。结果表明:优化后的最大熵模型AUC值为0.969,说明优化后的MaxEnt模型预测更好。圆叶天女花潜在适宜区从凉山彝族自治州金阳县到巴中市南江县大致呈带状分布,影响其分布的主要自然生态因子为温度年较差、最干月降水量、地质灾害、海拔、温度季节性变化及土壤交换性盐基。将人类干扰因子作为保护代价成本,运用Marxan模型,识别出圆叶天女花的保护空缺主要位于天全河自然保护区、贡嘎山自然保护区和大熊猫国家公园、二郎山国家森林公园、海螺沟国家森林公园附近区域。Abstract: Based on the natural ecological factors, such as climate, soil and topography, combined with Oyama sinensis distribution sample data, the Maximum Entropy Model(MaxEnt) optimized in R language Kuenm package was used to predict the potentially suitable distribution areas of Oyama sinensis. On this basis, according to the human disturbance factor calculated by the entropy assignment method, combined with the Marxan model, we identified the priority conservation areas for Oyama sinensis and explored the conservation vacancy areas for Oyama sinensis. The results showed that the AUC value of the optimized MaxEnt model was 0.969, indicating that the optimized MaxEnt model predicted extremely well. The simulation results of the optimized MaxEnt model indicated that, the potentially suitable areas for Oyama sinensis were roughly banded from Jinyang County, Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture, to Nanjiang County, Bazhong City. The main natural ecological factors affecting it distribution were the annual difference in temperature, the precipitation in the driest month, the geological hazards, the altitude, the seasonal changes in temperature and the total exchangeable bases in the topsoil. Human disturbance factors were taken as the cost of protection, and the Marxan model was applied to identify the conservation vacancies of Oyama sinensis mainly located in the Tianquan River Nature Reserve, Gongga Mountain Nature Reserve, and the areas near the Giant Panda National Parks, Erlang Mountain National Forest Parks, and Hailuogou National Forest Park.