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四川石渠县藏原羚栖息地及气候变化潜在影响评估
Assessment ofhabitat for the Tibetan gazelle (Procapra picticaudata)and its potential impacts by climate change in Shiqu county
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摘要: 基于2023年5月至2024年7月的样线调查数据,对石渠县藏原羚适宜栖息地及气候变化的潜在影响进行了评估。结果表明:坡向、温度季节性变动率、气温日较差、年温度变化范围是影响藏原羚栖息地利用的主要环境因子,藏原羚现有适宜栖息地面积为2 113 km2,次适宜栖息地面积为9 996 km2,其中长沙贡玛自然保护区内约有771 km2适宜栖息地和2 342 km2次适宜栖息地,藏原羚适宜和次适宜栖息地主要分布在保护区外。除了个别时间段影响较小,SSP126、SSP245、SSP375和SSP585等4个未来气候情景下藏原羚适宜栖息地面积仅为现有适宜栖息地的50.84%~73.17%,适宜栖息地大都往西北和西南两侧高海拔地区移,次适宜栖息地为现有适宜栖息地的95.99%~115.45%。综上所述,未来气候会减少藏原羚质量较高的栖息地,并使其往高海拔地区移,保护石渠县藏原羚应该同时关注西部高海拔山地。Abstract: Based on the line transect surveys conducted from May 2023 to July 2024, this study evaluated the potential impacts of climate change on the suitable habitat of the Tibetan gazelle(Procapra picticaudata) in Shiqu County. The analysis identified slope direction, seasonal temperature variation, dailytemperature range and annual temperature range as the four primary environmental factors influencing gazelle distribution. The results showed that:the area ofexistingsuitable habitat was
2113 km2, with an additional9996 km2 classified as sub-suitable. Of this, 771 km² of suitable habitat and2342 km2 of sub-suitable habitat lay within the Changshagongma Nature Reserve, with the remainder located outside the reserve. Excluding periods with small impacts, the suitable habitat for the Tibetan gazelle wouldbe only 50.84% to 73.17% ofthe existing suitable habitat under the four future climate scenarios(SSP126, SSP245, SSP375, and SSP585). Most of this suitable habitat would be shifted to higher altitudes in the northwestern and southwestern regions of the county, while the sub-suitable habitat would be 95.99% to 115.45% of its current extent. The findings indicate that future climate change would likely reduce high-quality habitats for the Tibetan gazelle, driving them to higher altitudes. Therefore, conservation efforts in Shiqu County should also focus on the western high-altitude mountainous areas.