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内蒙古大兴安岭地区森林雷击火灾时空动态趋势研究
Study on the Spatiotemporal Dynamic Trend of Forest Lightning Fire in the Daxing'anling Area of Inner Mongolia
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摘要: 基于内蒙古大兴安岭1980—2018年森林雷击火灾数据,运用分位数回归法、Mann–Kendall趋势检验及滑动t检验对于雷击火发生的时间(年、防火期、季节)、空间(行政区划、海拔)两个尺度对火灾发生频率和火灾空间变化进行分析。结果表明:1980—1999年内蒙古大兴安岭雷击火发生次数较少;在2000—2010年呈上升趋势,火灾从2000年骤升;2011—2018年火灾呈下降趋势。春、夏两季是森林雷击火发生的主要季节,冬季发生雷击火的次数较少,火险期内火灾向夏季偏移和延长。空间分布特征为东北向西南逐渐减少趋势,鄂伦春自治旗、阿荣旗、额尔古纳市及莫力达瓦达斡尔族自治旗发生雷击火频率较高。内蒙古大兴安岭具有丰富森林资源,应加强春、夏两季森林雷击火的防火监测和预防手段,并适当调整防火资源,从而近一步减少大兴安岭火灾发生次数。Abstract: Based on the forest lightning fire data from 1980 to 2018 in Daxing'anling, Inner Mongolia, this study uses quantile regression, Mann Kendall trend test and sliding t test to analyze the time and space scales of lightning fire. The time dynamic characteristics analyzed the fire frequency on the scale of year, fire prevention period and season, and the spatial dynamic characteristics studied the spatial change of fire on the scale of administrative division and altitude. The results showed that the number of lightning fires in Daxing'anling, Inner Mongolia, was less from 1980 to 1999, and showed an upward trend from 2000 to 2010. The fire rose sharply from 2000 to 2010, reached the peak in 2010, and showed a downward trend from 2011 to 2018; Spring and summer are the main seasons for forest lightning fires, and the number of lightning fires in winter is less, and the fire in the fire danger period shifts and extends to summer. The spatial distribution is characterized by a decreasing trend from the northeast to the southwest. Lightning fires occur frequently in Oroqen Autonomous Banner, Arong Banner, Erguna city and Molidawa Daur Autonomous Banner. Daxing'anling in Inner Mongolia is rich in forest resources. By studying the spatio-temporal dynamic change trend of lightning fire in a long time series, we should strengthen the fire prevention monitoring and prevention measures of forest lightning fire in spring and summer, and adjust the fire prevention resources appropriately, so as to further reduce the number of fires in Daxing'anling.