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濒危植物大叶木兰在西双版纳潜在分布区及保护空缺研究
Assessing the potential suitable distribution areas and conservation gaps of a rare and endangered plant species, Lirianthe henryi in Xishuangbanna
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摘要: 以96个大叶木兰分布点和22个环境因子为研究对象,在MaxEnt模型中评估了珍稀濒危植物大叶木兰在云南西双版纳的潜在分布区,分析了保护空缺及影响其分布的主要环境因子。结果表明:模型预测结果的准确性可信度高(AUC=
0.9804 ),可以用来预测大叶木兰在西双版纳的地理分布。影响该物种分布的主要环境因子为降水和海拔以及与海拔相关性极强的温度因子。大叶木兰在西双版纳的适宜分布区主要集中于景洪中部和勐腊中南部,总面积10691.80 km2;经保护空缺分析,实际潜在分布区面积为5055.46 km2,其中仅1986.87 km2位于保护地内,尚有3068.59 km2的保护空缺。建议通过人工繁育野外回归、绿化应用等方式扩大大叶木兰种群规模,并在生物学、生态学等方面增大科研投入力度,确保该物种的长期存续。Abstract: MaxEnt model was utilized to assess the potential suitable distribution areas of the rare and endangered species Lirianthe henryi in Xishuangbanna, Yunnan Province, based on 96 occurrence records and 22 environmental variables. The model achieved an AUC value of0.9804 , indicating high predictive performance and reliability in estimating the species’ geographic distribution. According to the contribution rates of environmental variables, the species’ distribution is primarily influenced by precipitation (coldest quarter, seasonality, and warmest quarter), elevation, and temperature variables that are strongly correlated with elevation. The predicted suitable habitat was primarily concentrated in central Jinghong and the south-central region of Mengla, with a total area of 10,691.80 km2. Conservation gap analysis revealed that the actual suitable habitat was only 5,055.46 km2, with merely 1,986.87 km2 falling within designated protected areas, leaving an unprotected gap of 3,068.59 km2. To enhance the conservation of Lirianthe henryi, it is recommended to implement ex situ conservation strategies such as artificial propagation and reintroduction, promote its application in ecological restoration, and strengthen research efforts in plant biology and ecological research to ensure the long-term survival of the species.