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基于HYSPLIT的小区域林火PM2.5排放扩散模拟研究
Comparison Study on the Dispersion Impact of PM2.5 Emissions from a Small-scale Forest Fire Based on HYSPLIT
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摘要: 基于拉格朗日混合单粒子轨道模型,利用全球火灾排放库、快速火灾排放库、全球火灾同化系统不同火灾排放数据库和2020年3月29日—4月3日气象数据,对四川省凉山彝族自治州木里藏族自治县发生的一场森林火灾排放的PM2.5的扩散时空格局的开展定量分析,结合哨兵2号卫星影像验证结果,最后对比分析不同数据库的PM2.5模拟扩散值与地面检测值,并探讨不同数据库在森林火灾燃烧事件模拟中的有效性和准确性。结果表明:HYSPLIT模拟的森林火灾烟尘扩散格局与哨兵2号影像目视的烟尘区一致Sorensen指数为0.682,扩散格局基本一致。不同数据库PM2.5排放总量有较大差异,PM2.5排放总量GFED>QFED>GFAS。PM2.5地面监测值与不同数据库模拟值格局一致且都正相关,相关性GFAS>QFED>GFED。本研究验证了不同全球火灾排放数据库在小尺度森林火灾中的适用性,可为林火污染危害评估与防控提供技术支撑。Abstract: Based on the Lagrangian Hybrid Single-Particle Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model, this study quantitatively analyzed the spatiotemporal diffusion patterns of PM2.5 emitted from a forest fire that occurred in Muli Tibetan Autonomous County, Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture, Sichuan Province, using three fire emission inventories: the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED), the Quick Fire Emissions Dataset (QFED), and the Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS), together with meteorological data from March 29 to April 3, 2020. The simulation results were validated against Sentinel-2 satellite imagery, and the simulated PM2.5 concentrations from different inventories were compared with ground-based observations to evaluate the effectiveness and accuracy of these inventories in modeling forest fire events. The results showed that the PM2.5 diffusion patterns simulated by HYSPLIT were consistent with the smoke-affected areas visually identified in Sentinel-2 imagery, with a Sørensen index of 0.682, indicating substantial spatial agreement. The total PM2.5 emissions varied considerably among the different inventories, following the order GFED > QFED > GFAS. Ground-based PM2.5 measurements were positively correlated with all simulated values, with correlation strength ranked as GFAS > QFED > GFED. This study demonstrates the applicability of different global fire emission inventories in small-scale forest fire cases and provides technical support for the assessment and prevention of wildfire-related pollution hazards.
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