气候变化情景下的大面积高强度森林火灾研究进展

Megafires Under Climate Change: A Review of Research Advances

  • 摘要: 在气候变化背景下,全球发生大面积、高强度森林火灾的风险不断增加。聚焦大面积高强度森林火灾的概念,对“大面积”与“高强度”进行多元化定义,科学界定与全球接轨的“大面积高强度森林火灾”概念值得深入研究;基于火灾风险评估演化出经验模型、物理模型和人工智能模型等火行为预测技术,构建能够深刻揭示其形成机理、精准模拟其蔓延行为的预警监测和评估体系至关重要。大面积高强度森林火灾的形成与蔓延基于“燃烧三角形”,离不开可燃物、天气与火源以及地形、人类活动等其他因素,与一般森林火灾不同,其火势更猛烈、能量释放更快且影响更广。气候变化主要通过加剧高温、干旱、强风等极端天气影响火灾,同时改变可燃物特征驱动火灾频发与极端演化;气候变暖导致极端火险天气频发,火灾规模逐年增大,此类火灾对全球碳循环及生态系统长期恢复力产生了深远影响。认识大面积、高强度火灾的长期生态后果,科学指导生态系统修复,是火管理的重要一环;将来应注重“空–天–地–人”一体化立体监测、多源数据融合预警以及综合可燃物管理,研究结果可为构建适应气候变化的森林火灾风险精准预警与综合防控体系提供参考。

     

    Abstract: With climate change, the global risk of large-scale high-intensity forest fires will constantly increase. This review focuses on the concept, occurrence, formation mechanisms, ecological impacts, and research methods of large-scale, high-intensity forest fires. It reveals that definitions of "large scale" and "high intensity" remain diverse and context-dependent. Large-scale and high-intensity forest fires are distinct from ordinary forest fires; climate change mainly affects fires by intensifying extreme weather conditions such as high temperatures, droughts, and strong winds, while also changing the characteristics of combustibles to drive frequent and extreme fire occurrences and evolution; based on fire risk assessment, including empirical models, physical models, and artificial intelligence models, fire behavior prediction technologies have been developed. These fires exert a profound impact on the global carbon cycle and the long-term resilience of ecosystems. Future efforts should be placed on integrated three-dimensional monitoring of "air - sky - ground - human", multi-source data fusion-based early warning, and comprehensive management of combustible materials. The findings can serve as a reference for constructing an accurate early-warning and comprehensive prevention-and-control system for forest fire risks that is adapted to climate change.

     

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