周伟, 赵衡, 杨熙. 利用GARP生态位模型预测牛蛙和薇甘菊在中国的地理分布[J]. 西南林业大学学报, 2012, 32(1): 51-55. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2095-1914.2012.01.011
引用本文: 周伟, 赵衡, 杨熙. 利用GARP生态位模型预测牛蛙和薇甘菊在中国的地理分布[J]. 西南林业大学学报, 2012, 32(1): 51-55. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2095-1914.2012.01.011
ZHOU Wei, ZHAO Heng, YANG Xi. Prediction of Potential Geographic Distribution Areas for Rana catesbiana and Mikania micrantha in China Using GARP Modeling System[J]. Journal of Southwest Forestry University, 2012, 32(1): 51-55. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2095-1914.2012.01.011
Citation: ZHOU Wei, ZHAO Heng, YANG Xi. Prediction of Potential Geographic Distribution Areas for Rana catesbiana and Mikania micrantha in China Using GARP Modeling System[J]. Journal of Southwest Forestry University, 2012, 32(1): 51-55. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2095-1914.2012.01.011

利用GARP生态位模型预测牛蛙和薇甘菊在中国的地理分布

Prediction of Potential Geographic Distribution Areas for Rana catesbiana and Mikania micrantha in China Using GARP Modeling System

  • 摘要: 应用GARP软件预测外来种牛蛙和薇甘菊在中国的地理分布。结果表明,牛蛙在中国的适生分布范围极广,在144个分布点中随机选择50个得出的预测精确度达到9574%;虽然目前薇甘菊的记录点不多,但预测图显示其适生区范围涉及长江以南的广大地区,这种势态应引起高度重视;还讨论了预测的精确度、预测图的特殊地区,及对它们的预警、防范和控制问题

     

    Abstract: GARP method was used to predict the potential distribution area of Bull frog (Rana catesbiana) and Mileaminute Weed (Mikania micrantha) in China. The results showed that suitable areas for Bull frog were widely in China. The result of predicative precision was about 95.74% when 50 records of Bull frog distribution were random sampled from 144 records. However, its suitable areas spread in wide areas south of Yangtze River on the prediction map though now the records of Mileaminute Weed were a few, which should be greatly pay attention. In the end, it was discussed that predicative precision, especial areas in prediction map as well as the matter of warning, keeping away and controlling them.

     

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