Abstract: Based on the data for 1987-2008 of the forest fire disaster in Fujian province，the prediction model was established by using the weighted Markovchain prediction method, and applied the prediction model to predicting the number of the forest fire disaster in 2009. Then use this method to validate the data for 2007-2008. The result showed that the predicted result was highly consistent with the actual result, and the forecasting precision was more than 85%, which indicated that the weighted Markovchain prediction method could be used in shortterm prediction of the forest fire disaster.