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基于2001—2020年遥感数据的云南野火时空动态研究
Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Wildfires in Yunnan Province Based on Remote Sensing Data from 2001 to 2020
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摘要: 基于2001—2020年中分辨率成像光谱仪(MODIS)热异常/火灾位置产品数据(MCD14DL),采用统计分析法,通过Mann–Kendall趋势检验、滑动t检验、核密度、空间自相关分析云南省野火发生的时空动态变化规律。结果表明:2001—2020年云南省野火发生的年际波动趋势较大,野火发生次数在2001—2010年呈上升趋势,在2010—2020年呈下降趋势,其中火点高峰值出现在2010年;野火发生具有明显的季节性差异,火灾主要集中在春冬季,春季野火火点最多,高峰值出现在3月份。野火发生在空间尺度上呈现聚集分布的特征,主要集中分布在云南省西南部和东南部。本研究对基于卫星火灾产品的云南省野火时空动态规律进行深入分析,有助于更深入揭示野火发生的机理及风险,以便在野火发生的高火险期适当调整防火资源配置。Abstract: Based on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) thermal anomaly/fire location product data(MCD14DL) from 2001 to 2020, statistical analysis was used to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamic changes of wildfires in Yunnan Province through Mann–Kendall trend test, sliding t-test, kernel density, and spatial autocorrelation. The results showed that there was a significant interannual fluctuation trend in the occurrence of wildfires in Yunnan Province from 2001 to 2020. The frequency of wildfires showed an upward trend from 2001 to 2010 and a downward trend from 2010 to 2020, with the peak of wildfire occurrence occurring in 2010; Wildfire occurrences have significant seasonal differences, with fires mainly concentrated in spring and winter. Spring wildfires have the most ignition points, with the peak occurring in March. Wildfires occur at a spatial scale and exhibit a clustered distribution, mainly concentrated in the southwest and southeast of Yunnan Province. This study conducts an in-depth analysis of the spatiotemporal dynamic patterns of wildfires in Yunnan Province based on satellite fire products, which helps to reveal the mechanisms and risks of wildfire occurrence more deeply, so as to adjust the allocation of fire prevention resources appropriately during the high risk period of wildfire occurrence.