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2000—2020年红河州喀斯特石漠化时空动态变化及驱动力分析

Spatio-Temporal Dynamics and Driving Forces of Karst Desertification in Honghe Prefecture, 2000—2020

  • 摘要: 以云南省红河哈尼族彝族自治州为研究区,依托Google Earth Engine平台获取2000—2020年Landsat系列影像,计算植被覆盖度与岩石裸露率等指标构建石漠化等级数据集;结合转移矩阵与空间统计刻画等级格局的时序变化与空间集聚特征,并采用Theil–Sen趋势估计与Mann–Kendall检验识别变化方向及显著性;进一步引入最优参数地理探测器模型,量化气候、地形地质、土地利用变化及人类活动因子对空间分异的解释力,并揭示关键因子交互增强效应。结果表明:石漠化空间格局分异显著,形成了西北、东南部无石漠化,中、北部及东北部为中度石漠化主导,重度与极重度石漠化呈零散斑块状分布。2000—2020年,红河州石漠化状况总体呈波动中持续向好的趋势,石漠化扩张得到有效遏制,石漠化等级格局呈现阶段性波动并伴随明显的空间转移,改善与恶化具有显著空间差异,其中显著变化区主要分布于地形破碎、岩性敏感且人类活动强度较高区域。生态生产力是影响石漠化空间分异的重要过程约束,气候与地形背景因子主要表现为间接调节与背景约束作用;自然约束与人类扰动共同影响石漠化空间分异,且多因子交互解释力普遍高于单因子。

     

    Abstract: With Honghe Hani and Yi Autonomous Prefecture in Yunnan Province as the study area, we acquired Landsat time-series images from 2000 to 2020 using the Google Earth Engine platform and constructed a rocky desertification severity dataset by calculating fractional vegetation cover and bare rock exposure rate. The temporal evolution and spatial clustering characteristics of the severity distribution were characterized by combining a transition matrix with spatial statistical methods, while the direction and significance of changes were identified using Theil–Sen trend estimation and the Mann–Kendall test. Furthermore, an optimal-parameter Geodetector model was employed to quantify the explanatory power of climate, topography and geology, land-use change, and anthropogenic factors for spatial heterogeneity, thereby revealing the interaction-enhancement effects among key factors. The results indicate that the spatial pattern of rocky desertification is significantly heterogeneous, with rocky desertification-free areas mainly distributed in the northwestern and southeastern parts, areas dominated by moderate rocky desertification in the central, northern, and northeastern parts, and scattered patches of severe and extremely severe rocky desertification. From 2000 to 2020, rocky desertification in Honghe Prefecture exhibited a fluctuating yet overall improving trend, indicating that its expansion had been effectively restrained. The severity grades of rocky desertification displayed stage-specific fluctuations and distinct spatial transitions, with significant spatial differences between areas of improvement and deterioration. Areas exhibiting significant changes were mainly distributed in regions characterized by fragmented terrain, sensitive lithology, and intense anthropogenic activities. Ecological productivity serves as an important process constraint affecting the spatial heterogeneity of rocky desertification. Background factors related to climate and topography primarily act through indirect regulation and environmental constraints. Natural constraints and anthropogenic disturbances jointly influence the spatial heterogeneity of rocky desertification, and the explanatory power of multi-factor interactions is generally higher than that of individual factors.

     

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