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云南德钦县人熊冲突规律与空间风险格局研究

Study on the Patterns of Human-Bear Conflicts and Spatial Risk Distribution in Deqin County, Yunnan

  • 摘要: 为了解云南省德钦县的人熊冲突风险区分布,主动降低该区域人熊冲突的发生,以云南省德钦县作为研究区,用2014—2023年间发生的4168起历史冲突记录以及问卷调查数据,结合111个人熊冲突位点数据构建最大熵模型识别德钦县人熊冲突规律及人熊冲突风险区,结果表明:德钦县人熊冲突规律以农作物损毁为主,占67.2%。其中玉米受损最严重,占作物损毁的85.4%。年际冲突趋势表现为波动上升的趋势,秋季是季节高峰,夜间为日内高峰。单次经济损失主要集中于2500至5000元区间。全县风险区总面积为2341.21 km2,占县域总面积46.8%,呈现为南密北疏的分布。高风险区主要分布在金沙江和澜沧江河谷地带。人类活动指数(26.1%),海拔(23.4%),河流密度(17.7%),是影响人熊冲突风险区分布的主要环境变量,累计贡献率67.2%。综上,将MaxEnt分布模型算法用于横断山脉地区人熊冲突分布研究,有助于识别该地区人熊活动空间重叠区域。

     

    Abstract: In order to understand the distribution of human-bear conflict risk areas in Deqin County, Yunnan Province, and proactively reduce the occurrence of human-bear conflicts in this region, Deqin County was selected as the study area. Based on 4,168 historical conflict records and questionnaire survey data from 2014 to 2023, along with 111 site-specific records, we constructed a MaxEnt model to identify conflict patterns and risk areas in Deqin County. The results indicate that the pattern of human-bear conflicts in Deqin County is primarily characterized by crop damage, accounting for 67.2%. Among them, corn is the most severely affected, making up 85.4% of the crop damage. The trend of inter-annual conflicts shows a fluctuating upward pattern, with autumn being the seasonal peak and nighttime representing the daily peak. Individual economic losses are mainly concentrated in the range of 2,500 to 5,000 yuan. The total area of risk zones in the county is 2,341.21 km2, accounting for 46.8% of the county's total area, showing a pattern of dense in the south and sparse in the north. High-risk areas are mainly located in the valleys of the Jinsha River and Lancang River. Human activity index (26.1%), elevation (23.4%), and river density (17.7%) are the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of human-bear conflict risk areas, with a cumulative contribution rate of 67.2%. In summary, applying the MaxEnt distribution model algorithm to the study of human-bear conflict distribution in the Transverse Mountain region helps identify areas where human and bear activity spaces overlap.

     

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